The Weekender

I never imagined tariffs and trade would be among the easier things to write about, but considering last week’s insurmountable energy rally and the continued escalation in conflict, I’m beginning to miss the days when tit-for-tat tariffs were the only things injecting excitement into commodity markets.

We are only five trading days into March and it already feels like February was five years ago.

Speaking of commodities, let’s start there.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index just posted its best week since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago — up nearly 15% on the week and pushing back above 700 for the first time since the summer of 2022.

Historically, commodities and the dollar moved inversely—stronger dollar, weaker commodities.

That relationship briefly flipped after COVID as energy shocks pushed both higher. Now, with conflict in the Middle East driving a surge in energy prices, the $DXY and $GNX are once again moving in tandem.

It’s easy to see why the $GNX rallied so sharply last week—more than half of the index weighting is energy.