What. A. Week.

Between total exhaustion from seven straight days traipsing around Brazil and more than a few caipirinhas, I debated writing anything today.

But after last week’s excitement, it felt important to at least frame the week ahead with a brief update.

Soybeans

  • Trump–Xi call sparks rally: President Trump floated +8 mmt of U.S. purchases this year (~294 mbu), on top of 12 mmt already bought (~441 mbu), plus 25 mmt annually going forward (~918 mbu/yr) — none confirmed.

  • Brazilian farmer selling picks up: Estimated ~2 mmt/day (~74 mbu) as harvest moves forward; Mato Grosso ~40% complete vs 29% last year.

  • Record volume: Thursday posted ~930k contracts, underscoring headline-driven volatility.

  • Argentina weather improves: Widespread rains forecast through the third week of February after five weeks of deterioration.

  • Brazilian FOB premiums slide: US/China/8MMT chatter — mid-harvest — sent premiums sharply lower the last half of the week.

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