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Week In Review
The Week in Under 60 Seconds
We began the week with wide-open harvest weather, a Brazilian election surprise that sent the real surging and the market expecting another corn yield cut Friday.
By the time all was said and done, USDA had found more corn, beans held their ground and wheat got dragged along for the ride. Another tanker attack sent diesel higher while Washington tried again to bring some relief at the pump.
The bullish August WASDE seems like a lifetime ago. Surprise yield cuts helped ignite a 90-cent corn rally, only for the September 30 stocks report and Friday’s yield increase to erase much of it in ten days.
Nearly two months later, the corn balance sheet has made the round trip. A lot of time, energy, and now frustration to end up right back where we started.
USDA giveth... and USDA taketh away.
Daily Play-by-Play
Monday: Corn hardly budged, wheat bounced and bean oil rallied as better harvest weather eased meal’s squeeze, while broader commodities tanked and the BRL strengthened after the election.
Tuesday: Corn saw double-digit gains on technical buying, while beans found support from slow harvest and Brazil’s stronger real.
Wednesday: Corn surrendered part of Tuesday’s rally as meal jumped and oilshare broke.
Thursday: Another Gulf tanker attack sent diesel higher, while grains chopped ahead of Friday’s USDA numbers.
Friday: USDA’s surprise 181.2 bpa corn yield hammered futures, wheat followed and beans recovered to finish higher.
Energies & Macro
Another week of diesel tug-of-war, driven by two wars that are showing few signs of slowing.
Key Takeaways
Twenty cent diesel moves used to be a big deal. Thursday’s tanker attack north of Qatar sent November heating oil up 26 cents and above $4.90 for the first time in three weeks. Fourteen of the 20 largest daily gains since 1980 have now happened in 2026, and heating oil has moved 20 cents or more in a session 18 times this year versus just 28 times in the previous 46 years combined. What used to be an extreme move has become a regular occurrence.
Washington will try just about anything to get diesel prices under control. Trump signed an order Monday allowing dyed diesel on highways, followed Friday by temporary sanctions relief allowing Russian diesel deliveries through April 7, 2027. Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes, with more to follow. That sounds like a lot — but it is ~2.2 million barrels, less than one day of U.S. distillate use.
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