The Weekender

It was another week defined by headlines — markets whipsawed between ceasefire talk, conflict escalation, shifting U.S.-China trade timelines, tensions, and the long-awaited RVO release, all building into Tuesday’s USDA acreage report.

What a decade of a week.

This one-minute WTI chart looks like a roller coaster — nearly a $20 range, only to finish right back where we started.

Wild swings and big ranges have become the norm.

Prior to the conflict, weekly WTI ranges were closer to $3.

Since then: $23, $43, and $18 last week.

Although down fractionally on the week, heating oil settled at a new high close Friday near $4.24/gallon.

Since the conflict began four weeks ago, nearby futures are up 63% — bringing year-to-date gains to 100%.

The focus the past several weeks has been squarely on Iran — and rightfully so, as the U.S. appears to be getting deeper into the conflict by the day.

But while attention has shifted to the Middle East, the war in the Black Sea hasn’t gone anywhere.

Ukraine continues to face an aggressive Russian offensive, and damage to infrastructure remains a persistent headwind for grain exports.

At the same time, Russia has moved to suspend ammonium nitrate exports for one month — prioritizing domestic supply during spring planting.