The Weekender

It was another week defined by headlines — markets whipsawed between ceasefire talk, conflict escalation, shifting U.S.-China trade timelines, tensions, and the long-awaited RVO release, all building into Tuesday’s USDA acreage report.

What a decade of a week.

This one-minute WTI chart looks like a roller coaster — nearly a $20 range, only to finish right back where we started.

Wild swings and big ranges have become the norm.

Prior to the conflict, weekly WTI ranges were closer to $3.

Since then: $23, $43, and $18 last week.

Although down fractionally on the week, heating oil settled at a new high close Friday near $4.24/gallon.

Since the conflict began four weeks ago, nearby futures are up 63% — bringing year-to-date gains to 100%.

The focus the past several weeks has been squarely on Iran — and rightfully so, as the U.S. appears to be getting deeper into the conflict by the day.

But while attention has shifted to the Middle East, the war in the Black Sea hasn’t gone anywhere.

Ukraine continues to face an aggressive Russian offensive, and damage to infrastructure remains a persistent headwind for grain exports.

At the same time, Russia has moved to suspend ammonium nitrate exports for one month — prioritizing domestic supply during spring planting.

Russia controls roughly 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade, with Brazil and India accounting for a large share of imports.

The move comes as global supplies are already under pressure — not just from Middle East disruptions, but also from damage to Russian production.

Recent drone strikes have sidelined key facilities, including the Dorogobuzh plant, which accounts for roughly 11% of Russia’s ammonium nitrate output.

There’s also a secondary angle: ammonium nitrate is a dual-use product. With the war in Ukraine ongoing, some analysts suggest supply may be increasingly directed toward domestic and industrial needs — including potential military applications.

Last week, old crop corn slipped 3 cents but continues to hold the 4.60–4.70 range we’ve traded for the past two weeks.

New crop December 2026 futures were unchanged, supported by uncertainty around 2026 acreage and tightening fertilizer supplies.

Further out, new crop 2027 corn pushed to a new high close near $4.93 — up 3 cents on the week — as the market starts to price in longer-term implications of higher input costs.

For comparison, November 2027 beans have managed just a 12-cent rally (1%) since the conflict began. CZ27, on the other hand, is up 15 cents (3%).

That’s pushed the 2027 corn/bean ratio back down near its lows at 2.25. I don’t like to get fixated on the ratio — but it’s worth noting here.

Wheat was one of the better performers last week, with HRW leading the move and showing some of the more legitimate fundamental support in the market right now.

Conditions continue to deteriorate — with Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado all moving lower last week.

Moisture deficits are building, with large parts of the Plains now in severe to extreme drought.

The change in drought conditions since fall planting has been notable.

A combination of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation is starting to limit U.S. production potential for 2026 — with abandonment risk on the rise.

At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East — including Red Sea disruption risk and deeper Russian involvement — are adding a geopolitical premium to wheat and bringing Black Sea export risk back into focus.

The situation deteriorated further over the weekend.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile attacks on Israel, raising fears of renewed Red Sea shipping disruptions just as Saudi Arabia had begun to resume crude exports through the corridor.

Outside of the escalating situation in the Middle East, the biggest news of the week was EPA’s release of its 2026–2027 RVO — more than nine months after the original proposal.

EPA set a high — but expected — bar for biomass-based diesel (D4) at 8.86 billion RINs for 2026 and 8.95 billion RINs for 2027 — the first time in program history EPA expressed the BBD standard in RINs rather than physical gallons.

We saw a bit of a sell-the-fact reaction Friday — futures broke hard initially before closing down 0.9% near 67.40.

Don’t let Friday’s momentary nosedive fool you, though. May futures still closed near 67 cents and remain close to their highest levels since late 2022.

Positioning matters here.

Managed money is already sitting near an all-time large long, with the market buying into RVO expectations for weeks — alongside strength in energy.

With everyone already crowded to the long side, the market now needs confirmation from cash and spreads. Feedstock values remain interconnected, shaped by policy, trade flows, and 45Z incentives — but direction will continue to be driven by energy and RINs.

Put it all together though, and the result is clear — a sharp step-up in feedstock demand into 2026–2027, requiring U.S. biomass-based diesel capacity to run at very high utilization rates.

Looking for more?

Check out today’s No Bull Insights: 2026-2027 RVO — exclusive for Pro+ subscribers.

I spent the first part of the week in Kansas City at Bloomberg’s Farm, Food, and Fuel Summit 2026 — attending the event and moderating an ethanol panel.

Appreciate Craig Willis, Imre Havasi, and Will Faulkner for a great discussion.

I also spent time visiting my parents, who are camped out at a St. Louis hospital for the next couple weeks.

My dad has battled non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma on and off for more than a decade. He’s currently undergoing CAR T-cell therapy — a treatment that uses your own immune cells, re-engineered to better fight cancer.

It’s a remarkable process with an eye-watering price tag — ~$475k for about 7 mL of modified cells (thankfully covered by insurance).

He’s doing well — I can tell by the feistiness (yes, that’s where I get it). And kudos to my mom for being right by his side.

And to end the week, I spent Friday chasing kindergartners around the St. Louis Aquarium — not ideal timing for an RVO release.

This was a split second before she leaned a little too far and soaked her entire right arm.

The Owen and Genevieve saga continues — inseparable, and she’s apparently proposing at least twice a week.

I owe everyone a March 31 report preview — aiming to get that out later tonight or early tomorrow.

In the meantime, RVO and acres aside, this market is trading one thing: war — and it’s intensifying as I type.

Thanks,

Susan