Two weeks into this conflict and it feels like we have been living with it for years.

Energy volatility has quickly become the dominant force shaping price action across the entire commodity complex.

Right now, four themes are driving the bus:

• The Middle East war — energy volatility has dragged the entire commodity complex along for the ride.

• Money flow — investors are piling back into commodities as funds chase the GSCI and the inflation trade.

• The soybean story — Brazil’s ‘bad’ beans, U.S.-China politics, and biofuel policy — colliding all at once.

• The acreage debate — rising fertilizer costs are forcing producers to rethink corn economics, but are we not thinking this through?

Energy is driving the bus.

As long as energy markets remain volatile, grains and oilseeds will remain caught in the swings.

Last week alone produced a historically wide range in crude, with massive intraday swings driven almost entirely by headlines tied to the conflict and disruptions to shipping routes and infrastructure.

Oil gapped higher when markets opened Sunday night, setting off a chaotic week that ultimately produced roughly a $40 trading range — from Sunday night into Monday’s close alone.

After five volatile days, Brent closed the week up 11.3%, settling above $103.

This weekly Brent chart helps put the move into perspective — not only the speed of the rally over the past two weeks, but the level itself.

$100 crude has only been sustained a handful of times historically.

The second driver is money flow.

The strength in energy is pulling investors back into commodities — chasing both the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) and the broader inflation trade.

Remember, energy carries the largest weighting in the GSCI at roughly 52%.

Brent crude alone accounts for 18.2% of the entire index, followed closely by WTI at 17.8%.

While stronger energy markets are ultimately bullish commodities, be careful falling into the “crude is X, therefore ag must be Y” trap.