The Weekender

It was another week of heightened volatility as we closed out the third trading week since conflict erupted in the Middle East — with energy continuing to drive the bus.

The difference this week: trade re-entered the equation, adding a second layer of uncertainty on top of the conflict itself.

Soybeans finished the week down 64 cents — their largest weekly loss since May of 2023 — and only managed to recover a fraction of Monday's limit-down wipeout as the week progressed.

Despite the damage, nearby futures remain above the Oct/Nov "deal" levels that followed the Busan summit and are holding near their highest sustained levels of the past two years.

Trump and trade remain a key driver.

As of midweek, the Beijing summit was pushed back “5–6 weeks,” citing the war. By Thursday, it was “reset” with a potential mid-May timeline, and as recently as yesterday, Politico reported that new dates would not be set until the Iranian conflict ends — something I can’t imagine beans will like heading into the open tonight.

Although Trump and Xi won’t be meeting anytime soon, Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture is scheduled to visit China in the coming days to work through ongoing soybean quality disputes, which have slowed port loadings and created bottlenecks during Brazil’s peak export window.