The Weekender

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Meal stole the show last week, rallying $23/ton to new highs before giving most of it back Friday. Beans still managed to finish higher, while corn lost just 3 cents and wheat futures were oddly quiet for the week.

Energy was yet another wild ride. Heating oil traded near $5.30, retail diesel hit another record and strikes on Russian energy infrastructure only intensified. Then the Fed joined the fun with its first rate hike in more than three years.

Now attention shifts to weather, war and Washington.

Guess what?

It’s not getting any better.

Heating oil traded just shy of $5.30/gallon midweek as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries intensified. Markets gave back more than half of those gains by Friday, but still settled 10 cents higher on the week (+2%). Front month futures have now closed higher 11 of the past 13 weeks, rallying more than $2/gallon since July 1.

Trump’s Monday morning claim Ukraine agreed to not hit Russian energy targets did not age well. Strikes on Russian energy infrastructure continued through the week.

And it has only gotten worse this weekend. Ukraine just launched its largest overnight drone barrage of 2026 and hit the Moscow Oil Refinery. Russia says it downed 1,110 drones across 19 regions and Crimea.

The bigger problem is increasingly refined products, not crude. WTI fell more than 3% Wednesday to $102.43 on plans to restore Saudi pipeline flows, while diesel barely moved. U.S. refineries are already running near 97% utilization and distillate inventories are 13% below the five-year average heading into harvest and the winter heating season.

The pain at the pump is real. U.S. retail diesel hit a record $6.29/gal last week, up 32 cents in a week and $2.55 higher than one year ago. Regular gasoline climbed to $4.32/gal, up 16 cents on the week and back near levels last seen during the 2022 energy spike.

Pretty much. I feel like I’m on repeat at this point, but the repercussions of $5 diesel futures reach far beyond the pump.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen seven points since the Iran conflict began, from 40% to 33% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll — the lowest of his presidency. The poll also found 64% disapprove of his performance, while 80% expect U.S. involvement in Iran to continue for an extended period.

And America still has a long way to go: as of Sept. 20, nearly 60% of Trump’s second term remains — 853 more days until Jan. 20, 2029.

Trump’s approval rating may be sinking, but the U.S. Dollar Index is moving the other way. The $DXY moved back above 100 this week, its highest level since late July, after the Fed’s rate hike reinforced expectations that rates could stay higher for longer.

Two weeks ago, soybeans were all about yield. Last week, meal stole the show. This week, it’s China’s turn.

Meal pushed to new highs before giving most of it back Friday. December rallied $23/ton before giving all but $6 back by week’s end after a 3.4% break Friday. Tight WCB bean supplies and harvest delays kept nearby meal firm early, but improving harvest prospects and a late-week surge in Argentine meal export registrations weighed on the market by week’s end.

Meal was ripe for a selloff after reaching yet another record long. Managed money reached a record net long of 185.5k contracts in the week ending September 15, up from 160k the week before. When someone yelled “fire” Friday, the exit doors weren’t big enough.

Not sure which direction we head to start the week, but somebody clearly wanted Dec meal into Friday’s close. The one-minute chart makes it pretty obvious, with a huge burst of volume hitting just a few minutes before the closing bell.

In China, the meal story looks a little different.