The Weekender

Weather and war. War and weather…. again.

Favorable forecasts outweighed nearly everything else last week, pushing corn and beans lower while wheat continued to trade the Black Sea conflict and Middle East headlines kept energy markets moving in both directions.

Demand remained supportive underneath it all, with China steadily buying U.S. beans and crush margins gaining a little ground.

Weather says sell beans, war keeps wheat on edge, and USDA holds the cards on Wednesday.

Energy spent another week trading war headlines. The Strait of Hormuz drove the biggest swings, while continued escalation in the Black Sea kept another layer of risk under crude and distillates.

The Strait of Hormuz remains nowhere near normal. Daily transits briefly recovered during the first MoUs in early July, but that rebound faded fast. Traffic has since fallen back toward a handful of ships per day—roughly 90% below pre-conflict levels.

Crude still took it on the chin. WTI traded a wide $8 range before settling Friday at $78.18, down $6.49—or 7.7%—on the week. Reopening hopes drove the early selloff, but crude clawed back some ground as the details made clear Hormuz is nowhere close to normal.

Diesel took the same early-week hit but finished well off the lows. September ULSD traded a 50-cent range and closed at $3.90, down 19 cents—or 4.7%—on the week, after clawing back nearly 23 cents from Wednesday through Friday.

Crude may be bouncing around on ceasefire headlines, but diesel is telling a very different story. NY Harbor ULSD crack spreads have surged into the mid-$80s per barrel, above the 2022 highs, as Middle East disruptions and Russian refining losses tighten the global distillate market.