The Weekender

Spots are filling quickly for 2027 AgVentures. Due to strong demand, we’re offering two opportunities to experience soybean harvest in Brazil and have added a new destination: Argentina.

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Harvest selling and fund liquidation kept corn and wheat under pressure. Soybeans held up better on export demand, but Monday’s real shock and Brazil’s fast planting pace put the next round of competition in focus. Energy costs stayed high as markets weighed inflation against slower growth.

If you missed it Friday, last week’s HOT TAKE is available to everyone. The strain on farm finances deserves a wider audience.

Markets are caught between inflationary energy costs, slower-growth concerns and two energy-intensive wars with no clear end in sight.

The Fed held rates steady Wednesday, but the vote showed disagreement. The target range stayed at 3.75%–4%, with two of 12 officials favoring a quarter-point hike. Inflation remains elevated, leaving the timing of the next move uncertain.

AI spending is facing tougher questions. Alphabet fell 12.6% Thursday, shedding nearly $500 billion in market value as investors questioned the payoff from its AI buildout. Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $16.3 billion in first-half revenue and an $80.7 billion net loss, including a large noncash financing charge.

The AI trade hit a reality check. Amazon missed earnings and revenue estimates while holding to its $220 billion capital-spending plan, and Intel’s weak outlook dragged chip stocks lower. Investors are questioning when the enormous AI buildout will pay off; month-end selling added pressure. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% Friday, its worst day since June.

Oil continues to hold its geopolitical premium. WTI settled Friday at $104.12, up about 1% for the week and 15.2% for October. Brent stayed above $113, while the expiring December contract settled at $117.64. U.S. crude stocks fell for a fourth straight week. ExxonMobil and Chevron reported third-quarter profits among the highest in their histories, with refining profits at records.

Diesel refuses to break in a meaningful way. Although down 2.3% on the week, December heating oil settled at $4.68, ~95% above a year ago. Retail diesel averaged $6.35 for the week of Oct. 26, while distillate stocks were about 10% below the five-year average heading into heating season. Russia extended its diesel export ban through year-end.

The U.S. is heading into winter with no natural gas problem. Lower 48 storage reached 3,724 Bcf for the week ended Oct. 23, 38 Bcf above the five-year average. Record production and a warm El Niño winter forecast pushed Henry Hub spot to $2.52 last week, its lowest since November 2024, while December futures traded near $3. U.S. nitrogen producers can make fertilizer with cheap domestic gas while European competitors face much higher costs.

Europe is entering winter with little margin for error. EU storage is about 75% full, the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2011, versus a five-year average near 86%. TTF topped €100/MWh, its highest level in nearly four years. A cold winter could force Europe to compete with Asia for LNG, adding price pressure and raising costs for nitrogen producers.