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Table of Contents
Week In Review
The Week in Under 60 Seconds
Markets spent last week bouncing between Middle East headlines, the arrival of summer heat, month-end positioning, and anticipation ahead of the main event: Tuesday's USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
The Iran story continued, but the market's reaction became increasingly muted. The longer the cycle of escalation and de-escalation continues without a meaningful disruption to energy flows, the more attention shifts back to U.S. production prospects.
As heat settles into parts of the Corn Belt, weather is once again entering the conversation just as markets prepare for one of the most important USDA reports of the year.
This week's focus shifts from geopolitics to acres. Tuesday's report provides the first implied production estimate for the 2026 crop—a number the market will spend the rest of the growing season debating.
Energies & Macro
Another week, another ride on the ceasefire merry-go-round. The Strait of Hormuz remained technically open, but uncertainty surrounding energy flows kept the Middle East firmly in the market's crosshairs.
This time, however, U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans unexpectedly found themselves part of the conversation as markets increasingly looked past the headlines and back toward USDA, biofuels, and weather..
Key Points
Markets are increasingly desensitized to each new Middle East headline as the "ceasefire" continued to look anything but.
U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans unexpectedly became part of the diplomatic discussion, another reminder that the Trump administration has shown a willingness to insert agriculture into nearly every major trade and geopolitical negotiation.
Crude oil led the way lower, with WTI falling 8.7% on the week to $69.23, while heating oil finished little changed.
Bitcoin briefly traded below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024 before recovering into week's end.
The U.S. Dollar Index posted its third consecutive weekly gain, closing near 101.4—its highest level in more than a year—as markets continued to price in additional Fed tightening rather than rate cuts.
Bayer shares surged 24.8% on the week after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling strengthened its defense against Roundup failure-to-warn claims, potentially reducing litigation overhang and renewing speculation around a possible Crop Science split.
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