The Weekender

It was another week of headline-driven volatility, with a Middle East–led energy roller coaster, an uneventful WASDE, and a market-breaking ceasefire mixed in.

What began with high-octane geopolitical tension ended with a market searching for direction, as the immediate risk premium tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict began to fade — at least for now.

Energies were once again driving price action this week — opening above $110 for the first time in four years, before a ceasefire announcement triggered a sharp reversal, sending futures back into the mid-$90s for the rest of the week.

To put crude’s move in perspective, here’s a four-year chart — including the Russia–Ukraine invasion.

Heating oil followed suit — plummeting 67 cents from Tuesday’s close to Wednesday’s close in response.

Again, this four-year chart puts things in perspective:

Likewise, soybean oil took a nosedive Wednesday after trading above 70 cents earlier in the week, with May briefly hitting limit-down intraday.

Even after the selloff, May finished the week at 67.09 — down 185 points and just the third lower weekly close of the year.

Futures remain up more than 38% YTD.

Prior to Wednesday’s wipeout, funds were sitting at record length in soybean oil for the second week in a row — adding fuel on the way up and accelerating the unwind once the risk premium came out following Tuesday night’s ceasefire announcement.