The Weekender

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If St. Louis isn’t your thing…

Shortly after AgriNext wraps up, No Bull is heading to Brazil.

August 1-9, we'll travel from São Paulo into Mato Grosso do Sul, exploring orange production, coffee, sugar, ethanol, cotton harvest, beef processing, and one of the largest independent feedlots in Latin America.

For more information, visit NoBullAg.com/AgVentures.

Grains sold off hard during the first half of the shortened holiday week as the market stripped out war premium on growing optimism surrounding a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension and the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets found their footing late Thursday and Friday as soybean oil extended its rally, board crush margins pushed toward record levels, and D4 RINs continued their march higher. Meanwhile, soybeans largely watched from the sidelines as traders waited for confirmation that the long-awaited 25 MMT of Chinese new-crop business would finally materialize.

The net result: corn and wheat finished the week lower, soybean oil was the clear winner, and the oilseed complex held up far better than broader commodity markets. Wheat led the downside as war premium evaporated and global supply prospects continued to improve.

The backdrop remains largely unchanged: a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension, record-fast U.S. planting progress, a record Argentine corn crop, and a biofuel policy setup that continues to support soybean oil regardless of what crude oil does.

Energy drove the bus last week as optimism surrounding a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension and the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent crude and diesel sharply lower.

WTI fell 9% on the week from nearly $94 to below $88, pulling war premium out of grains and triggering broad commodity liquidation.

Likewise, heating oil fell nearly 8% during the shortened week, extending its two-week decline to nearly 15% and leaving nearby futures more than $1.00 per gallon below the war-driven highs reached in early April.

But the bigger story was what didn't go down.