The Weekender

Weather and war. War and weather.

Better rain chances sent funds running for the exits across corn, beans, meal and soyoil, while Middle East headlines whipped energy markets in both directions and escalating tensions in the Black Sea kept markets on edge.

Demand remains supportive underneath it all, but heading into August, forecasts dictate direction while geopolitical headlines drive the bus.

Energies were stuck in a two-way headline tug-of-war all week. Crude and diesel broke hard Monday as tensions with Iran briefly eased, with WTI down 7.5% and September ULSD falling nearly 9 cents.

That reversed Wednesday after a strike on a U.S. military base in Jordan sent diesel 22 cents higher in a single session before much of the war premium disappeared Thursday.

D4 RINs remained under pressure, dipping to their lowest level since May near $2.10 as EPA worked through 42 pending Small Refinery Exemption requests and chatter grew louder that the September 1 RFS compliance deadline could be extended—which should surprise no one.

Renewable diesel margins remain healthy, but today it is diesel doing more of the heavy lifting, especially as RIN generation picks up speed.

While EPA works through the current pile of SREs, the Senate farm bill draft proposes a complete rewrite of the system beginning in 2028 — while also making year-round E15 permanent nationwide.