The Weekender

Spots are filling quickly for 2027 AgVentures. Due to strong demand, we’re offering two opportunities to experience soybean harvest in Brazil and have added a new destination: Argentina.

For additional information or to reserve your spot, visit NoBullAg.com/AgVentures or reply to this message.

We started the week waiting for China to buy. By the time all was said and done, nearly 2 MMT of soybean sales had been flashed, and November beans had lost more than 30 cents.

Another week of “fun.”

Another week on the headline hamster wheel. Truce talk, renewed attacks, emergency releases—and crude still finished above $100.

November WTI climbed for a seventh straight session Friday, returning to triple digits at $101.41. The contract gained 10.4% for the week, while Brent settled at $109.86. Attacks around Hormuz intensified, a missile targeted Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export outlet at Yanbu, and Ukraine struck Russia’s Ryazan refinery. Additional emergency fuel releases and a proposed 17-million-barrel SPR exchange did little to calm supply concerns.

The Russia–Ukraine “energy truce” lasted about 48 hours. Russian attacks on power plants and rail infrastructure were followed by renewed Ukrainian refinery strikes. Diesel recovered to roughly $4.93 per gallon, approaching contract highs near $5.04. Attacks on merchant ships near Romania and Bulgaria also extended the threat to grain export routes.

September CPI showed consumer prices up 3.7% from a year ago, with energy costs doing most of the damage. Gasoline rose 34.2%, fuel oil surged 74.2% and air fares increased 22.4%. Food was a different story: prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs were nearly unchanged, up just 0.3%.

The dollar reached an 18-month high Wednesday before reversing Friday. Hotter inflation increased rate-hike expectations, but Fed Chair Warsh’s restrained comments Friday helped pull them back. The dollar fell 0.9%, while the 10-year yield recorded its biggest weekly decline in more than a year.

Worries about AI companies’ heavy borrowing helped send tech stocks lower this week. AI data center operator CoreWeave fell 12% Friday as investors questioned whether profits would arrive in time to repay debt. The selloff exposed the market’s dependence on AI: the S&P 500 remains up roughly 12% this year, but its median stock has gained just 6%, and 185 constituents are down.

Chinese buying returned, but the soy complex still struggled to find support.

U.S. soybean harvest jumped 21 percentage points to 46% complete through October 11, nearly catching the 50% average. The most notable gains were in Minnesota and Wisconsin, both up 43pp, while the Dakotas and Iowa also saw substantial increases.

The national number masks a wide regional divide. Iowa and Nebraska soybean harvest remained nearly 30 percentage points behind average, while the Delta and Southeast raced ahead, led by Tennessee at 26 points ahead, Arkansas at 23 and Mississippi at 19, as harvest nears completion in the far South.