The Weekender

AgriNext is only one week away! — July 27–28 at Ballpark Village, St. Louis, presented by No Bull Ag and Bloomberg.

Full agenda and registration at NoBullAg.com/AgriNext.

Corn opened with a bang last Sunday night, riding a hot, dry forecast into pollination, and gave most of it back before Monday was over. The bigger move came from energies. After Washington barred Iran-linked vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and floated a 20% transit charge, crude rallied and pulled soybean oil higher with it.

At the same time, the Black Sea conflict escalated. The Kerch Strait remained closed with no word from Moscow, Ukraine reported hits on Russian vessels, and Russia struck Pivdennyi, Ukraine’s largest Black Sea port. Wheat began pricing the heightened conflict in a way we have not seen since the early years of the war.

Markets backed off Tuesday on expectations for better weather and larger CONAB corn production estimate out of Brazil, while diesel kept grinding higher. Wednesday was the week’s turn: wheat rallied, volatility got a shot in the arm, and NOPA’s June crush smashed expectations.

Then, it was back into the red Thursday as corn and beans ran into resistance. After the close, the EPA reported record June RIN generation, while Washington raised tariffs on Brazilian goods to 25%, adding another complication for renewable fuel markets.

Energy led the week. Wheat led ags. Board crush traded sharply higher as oil rallied and November beans closed back above $12. Corn, after all the excitement, finished the week up a measly six and a half cents.

Energies led the way this week and grains followed.

Diesel was the standout for the second week in a row. August ULSD gained 51 cents, or 14%, to new contract highs after Trump declared the Iran truce effectively over, barred Iran-linked vessels from Hormuz, and floated a 20% transit charge. Crude rallied 9.4% Monday and held near $80 into the weekend. August soybean oil followed, gaining 435 points.

June D4 RIN generation reached 839 million RINs, up 14% from May and 33% higher than last year. The near-term RIN panic lost a little steam, but there is nothing comfortable about the situation.

The new 25% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods adds another complication for renewable-fuel feedstocks (effective July 22). Tallow did not make the exclusion list, making Brazilian supply more expensive and adding support to domestic fats and oils at the same time diesel is already bidding for them.