The Weekender

AgriNext is only two weeks away! — July 27–28 at Ballpark Village, St. Louis, presented by No Bull Ag and Bloomberg.

Full agenda and registration at NoBullAg.com/AgriNext.

Markets returned from the long Fourth of July weekend straight into a head-on collision between the first real weather threat of the 2026 growing season and China finally starting to buy U.S. beans again.

In other words: impeccable timing for a week of family vacation.

Beans led the way higher to start the week, while corn followed in strong fashion with an assist from continued strength in Euronext futures.

Meanwhile, the back-and-forth headlines in the Middle East added to the chaos, leaving energy markets a choppy mess. Crude and diesel surged Wednesday after the truce fell apart—again—before attention shifted to Friday’s WASDE and continued soybean flashes to China.

The week ended with a bang—literally—as escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed wheat sharply higher on reports grain trade had been halted in the Sea of Azov, while a relatively friendly WASDE capped off the week.

Never a dull moment.

The 60-day truce didn't make it to 60 days.

An overnight exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran ended with Trump declaring the truce over midweek. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted again, and crude and diesel rallied in response.

If this feels familiar, it should. It is the same ceasefire cycle that gave us the June 28 strikes—just one more lap around the loop of endless bullsh*t.

Then Russia announced a diesel export ban to protect domestic supplies, adding even more chaos to an already messy energy market.

Energies were already on edge. With the ceasefire anything but ceased, Russia’s diesel export ban sent heating oil up more than 35 cents on Wednesday alone—reminding us all just how much fun geopolitics can be.

RINs set records. D4 RINs made new highs near $2.58 midweek before easing slightly into Friday. Their continued outperformance versus the BOHO spread is a clear sign blending trails what the mandate requires.

The import math isn’t mathing. January–May UCO imports are just over 1 billion pounds—less than half last year’s pace—as policy [trade and biofuel] forces a sharp repricing and rerouting of feedstocks, keeping soybean oil supported.

The tariff clock is ticking. Section 122 tariffs expire July 24. The proposal would replace the current 10% tariff with 25% on Brazil and 12.5% on Australia, leaving tallow flows in limbo (among other things) until policy is settled.

Energy volatility brought inflation—and rate hikes—back to the forefront. June Fed minutes reopened the door to rate hikes just as the energy spike added another inflation headache, pushing yields higher. With Russia restricting diesel exports and Washington tightening pressure on Iranian oil, the world’s energy issues are starting to look less temporary.

They’re bacckkk…

It has never been a matter of if, but when, China would begin chipping away at its 25 MMT new-crop U.S. soybean commitment. Flash sales totaled nearly 1 MMT by Friday, while WASDE held new-crop carryout at a relatively tight 310 mbu—the lowest in four years—even with a record-large crop on the way.