The Weekender

Spots are filling quickly for 2027 AgVentures. Due to strong demand, we’re offering two opportunities to experience soybean harvest in Brazil and have added a new destination: Argentina.

For additional information or to reserve your spot, visit NoBullAg.com/AgVentures or reply to this message.

The path of least resistance remained lower last week as harvest pressure and fund selling outweighed China’s return to the soybean market and continued Black Sea disruption. Corn and wheat still need stronger export demand, while the prospect of larger South American crops adds another headwind.

Energies are screaming inflation, while grain prices and consumer sentiment suggest there’s a slowdown ahead.

Crude caught the geopolitical bid. Brent settled Friday at $116.72 a barrel, its highest close since April 29, after gaining 6.2% on the week. The market is weighing the prospect of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran alongside continued Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. WTI closed at $103.27, up 4.3%.

Diesel just won’t quit. December ULSD closed at $4.787/gal Friday, up more than 125% year to date and within 5 cents of its contract high. Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Russian refineries, along with China’s October export halt, have tightened supplies, and the IEA warns diesel shortages could stretch well into 2027. Russia lifting its export ban and renewed peace talks offer some hope, but emergency releases and Washington’s 24-cent tax waiver on dyed diesel have barely dented prices.

You’re fired…? CNBC’s final pre-midterm survey puts Trump’s economic approval at 34%, with 65% disapproving—the highest disapproval in CNBC polling back to Obama. Four in five rate the economy fair or poor, and Republican pessimism is up six points since July. Food costs outrank gas as a concern, 34% to 23%, while just 35% say the Iran war was worth it when higher gas prices enter the question. The AI buildout isn’t an easy sell either: 63% oppose a data center within 10 miles of home. Democrats lead the congressional preference question 52–45, with frustration over high prices weighing on Republicans heading into Nov. 3.

Inflation trade or deflation trade? Markets are caught between both. Fears of a slowdown are growing, even as Brent settled at $116.72 and energy costs keep pressure on farm margins. The Fed is expected to hold rates Wednesday, but all 100 economists in Reuters’ poll expect a December hike, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target. For agriculture, it’s a squeeze: crop prices are falling while fuel and other input costs remain high—a dramatically different dynamic from what we felt just six short weeks ago.

The soy complex is juggling a record-large U.S. harvest against a return in export demand and a fast start to Brazil’s next record crop.

China kept up the buying spree last week, with 1.06 MMT announced Monday through Thursday. Thursday’s sale marked the seventh consecutive session with a soybean flash. There’s plenty of reason to keep shopping here: Brazilian premiums are now about 40¢/bu above the U.S. Gulf—the widest gap since late August. Slow farmer selling and stronger domestic crush are keeping Brazil’s export premiums firm and U.S. beans looking like the better buy.

November soybeans lost another nickel last week, extending the slide to nearly 80 cents from September’s high. Even with China back in action, harvest pressure of a record-large crop and the risk of another yield increase have futures struggling. September’s second-largest pod count leaves room for a bigger crop, though the lightest implied pod weight since 2013 makes the final yield less certain.