The Wednesday HOT TAKE

Seven and a half months after the U.S. and China reached a “deal”—and more than a month after officials met in Beijing to formalize it—the market is still waiting for the reported 25MMT in new crop purchases to materialize.

For those anxiously awaiting business, I do have breaking news…

Today, we are one day closer to 25 MMT than we were yesterday.

Unfortunately, that's little comfort with the new marketing year just 10 weeks away and new-crop soybean commitments sitting at a decade low amid China's prolonged absence.

There is some good news, however.

Rumors heated up this week that China was inquiring about U.S. new-crop soybeans. Then things got more interesting Wednesday morning when USDA flashed a sale to "Unknown" that included 312,000 tonnes (11.5 mbu) of new-crop soybeans.

My sources tell me the business was not to China.

Regardless, this is a market starving for signs of life, with volatility and frustration mounting as the days pass.

China is expected to import a record 114 MMT of soybeans in 2026/27. Of that, 25 MMT are supposedly coming from the United States.

For perspective, 114 MMT is ~4.2 billion bushels — nearly identical to the entire 2025 U.S. soybean crop, at 4.26 billion bushels.

Or think about it another way:

China's annual soybean imports equate to roughly 312,000 tonnes, or 11.5 million bushels, every single day of the year.

That means this morning's rumored sale of 312,000 tonnes to "Unknown" would cover just one day's worth of China's annual soybean import needs.

While the market waits for China to buy U.S. soybeans, China continues buying Brazilian bushels.

And despite record supplies, Brazil's price advantage has narrowed considerably in recent months.

A stronger Brazilian real, lower futures prices, and slower farmer selling have pushed Brazilian export premiums to their highest levels since the U.S.-China agreement was announced last October, bringing nearby Brazilian offers close to parity with U.S. Gulf values.

As mentioned previously, today we are one day closer to the return of Chinese bean business. Unfortunately, we're also one day closer to the start of a new marketing year.

Similarly, corn, wheat, cotton, and other commodities continue waiting on the edge of their seats for business.

Unlike soybeans—where we at least know the commodity and the quantity—China's pledge to purchase an additional $17 billion of U.S. agricultural goods remains one giant unknown.

That uncertainty has left markets hypersensitive to every rumor, headline, and soybean sale, as every Tom, Dick, and Harry are constantly searching for clues about where those promised purchases may ultimately land, dragging the rest of us along for the ride.

To me, you can see the frustration in the soybean market.

It's literally stuck.