In tonight’s update:
The new year is off to a HOT start — with soybean oil giving precious metals a run for their money, ethanol running at a record pace, and a short squeeze breathing life back into cotton.
We also dig into stubbornly high barge freight, what it means for beans, and a market still trying to decide: deal or no deal with China?
And then there’s the bigger question — biofuels vs. China. When it comes to soybean demand, can you guess who’s actually bigger?
What’s HOT
Hot Commodities
It’s been an incredible start to 2026 for ag markets, with nearly every major U.S. commodity trading higher year to date — sugar the lone exception.
Much to the dismay of farmers, however, corn futures have essentially gone nowhere. Unless, of course, you consider clawing back from the post-January report hole an accomplishment.
Liquid Gold
Soybean oil has been the star of the show — even outperforming precious metals for a stretch.
Both soybean oil futures and D4 RINs pushed to new highs again today as anticipation builds ahead of EPA’s 2026–27 RVO.
Earlier today, EPA sent its proposed 2026 forward biofuel blending mandates to the White House — putting us in the home stretch. We should learn required volumes, treatment of foreign-derived fuels, and any reallocation tied to prior small refinery exemptions in the next few weeks.
The rally in oil has pushed oilshare back near 50% — a level reached only three times in history — bringing roughly equal value to the oil and meal components of a soybean bushel, even though meal accounts for roughly 75% of the physical bean.
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