The Wednesday HOT TAKE

I have to brag on Tripp a bit.

Yesterday, I watched him mix a couple loads of cattle feed, then rode along for a bit.

Turns out he is quite popular... and unique, to say the least.

None of this is new, however.

In fact, for his sixth birthday my mom made him this cake with a tractor hauling hay because that's exactly what he spent the summer before kindergarten doing—loading and hauling hay.

The best part is the student has become the teacher.

He's now teaching Genevieve, who insists on riding along every chance she gets—and has already started learning to drive.

As probabilities of a strong El Niño continue to heat up, so does the conversation around what it could mean for agriculture and commodity markets.

El Niño isn't just a weather story. It's a global supply story.

From Australian wheat and Malaysian palm oil to Brazilian coffee, South African corn, and Indian rice, a major El Niño can reshape production prospects, trade flows, and ultimately prices across a wide range of commodities.

The Bloomberg graphic below does a great job illustrating just how far-reaching the impacts can be.

Also worth a read is this Bloomberg story featuring my friend Les Finemore of Moreton Capital Partners, who argues markets may be underestimating the risks associated with what could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record. In fact, his team is launching a dedicated fund focused on trading weather-related commodity opportunities.

One thing is already clear: El Niño is putting agriculture back in focus.

With many commodity markets trading near multi-year lows, it feels like traders and investors are searching for a catalyst. A developing weather story with the potential to reshape production across multiple continents has a way of capturing attention.

And when Pacific waters get HOT, commodity markets tend to pay attention.