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Déjà Vu

Of course they did.

This may have been the longest, most frustrating month I can remember.

Which is impressive considering I also have no idea where the hell it went.

Perhaps that's what happens when you spend an entire month stuck in an infinite loop of whack a mole.

Finally put one thing to bed and another pops up.

Russia and Ukraine.

China.

The Middle East.

Washington.

Weather.

Headlines, headlines, and more headlines.

Just when you think you've finally gotten your arms around what matters, another Truth Social post hits, another geopolitical headline crosses or the weather forecast changes.

And we're off again.

At some point, you stop being surprised.

I can't tell you how many times this month I've looked at my screen and said some version of:

Of course it is.

Of course he did.

Why wouldn't that happen too?

And I'm certain I'm not alone.

Maybe you spent most of September on the wrong side of a soybean market that kept moving higher while early yields looked big enough to make you question why we were rallying in the first place.

Maybe you were short meal and watched harvest delays in the western Corn Belt send meal spreads straight up your backside with absolutely no mercy.

Or maybe you're a producer who couldn't care less about drowning in headlines because you’re drowning in the field and couldn't catch a dry stretch if your life depended on it.

Different problems. Same frustration.

Having conviction in your market view is one thing. Holding onto it when the information coming at you changes by the minute is something else entirely.

And I'll be the first to admit it.

I've been wrong too.

But being wrong doesn't bother me nearly as much as staying wrong.

There is a fine line between sticking with a view because you believe in the work behind it and sticking with it because you've become too attached to being right.

Sometimes the data changes.

USDA changed the data today.

And we have to go with it. End of story.

Which brings us to the final day of this never-ending month...

SURPRISE!

September 1 corn stocks came in at 2.095 billion bushels — 177 million above the average trade guess and 90 million above even the highest pre-report estimate.

Of course they did.

Source: USDA

And if this feels strangely familiar, it should.

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