The Wednesday HOT TAKE

U.S. corn is about to cross a historic export milestone as the PNW fills the void left by a sidelined soybean program to China.

Beans, however, tell a very different story. Trade War 2.0, Brazil’s dominance, and slowing Chinese import growth continue to reinforce the structural headwinds facing the U.S. soybean export program.

Plus, we are talking hogs and why agriculture is in a league of its own.

By this time tomorrow, U.S. corn export commitments for 2025/26 will surpass 3 billion bushels for the first time ever — and there are still four months left in the marketing year.

That alone says it all: 2025/26 corn exports are in a league of their own.

U.S. corn exports just hit ~2.2 billion bushels through April — only eight months in. That single eight-month stretch beats three full marketing years from the past decade and ties three more. We're lapping ten-year benchmarks before the marketing year's even finished.

Total commitments (shipped + unshipped) have now reached 90% of USDA’s current 3.3 billion bushel export forecast, leaving USDA little choice but to raise its full-year projection again in May.

Incredible to look at the year-on-year changes by destination region when one part of the globe accounts for nearly half of the increase alone.