The Wednesday HOT TAKE

In today’s update:

Corn exports are breaking records while old-crop soybean business remains stuck in a 10 MMT hole, and record crush demand is pushing premiums higher on both sides of the globe.

The divide is just as clear in the field and on the water—between a rain-favored eastern belt and a rapidly deteriorating west, and between strong demand and the growing logistical constraints threatening to slow the movement of grain.

Records are meant to be broken.

At 3.429 billion bushels (87 MMT), 2025/26 U.S. corn export commitments are up 650 Mbu (16.5 MMT) year over year and have already surpassed USDA’s current full-year forecast by 100 Mbu. Even more impressive, nearly half of the increase has come from Asia.

PNW corn remained competitive amid record U.S. supplies and faced little competition for export capacity as China stayed largely absent from the soybean market, particularly last fall.

Heavy lifting.

While all U.S. export regions have seen year-on-year increases in inspections through late July, PNW corn shipments stick out—up 43% from this point in 2024/25 and accounting for nearly half of the total increase over last year.

Rail shipments are also up sharply with another record year exports to Mexico.

Window of opportunity.

China’s absence from the soybean market left the PNW with room to move more corn last fall. Record supplies and discounted rail freight helped exporters capitalize, keeping shipments strong well beyond the usual spring peak—even as South American corn entered the market.

Money talks and...

U.S. corn has remained among the world’s cheapest origins for two years, driving back-to-back record export programs.