The Wednesday HOT TAKE

It was yet another big day for soybean oil, closing up 2.3% with May futures pushing above 59¢ for the first time in two and a half years.

The move has been anything but subtle.

Bean oil has now posted five 2%+ up days in 2026 — four of them in just the first 12 trading days of February — fueled by strength in energies, strong biofuel margins, and renewed policy optimism.

Year-to-date, May soybean oil is the best-performing major commodity, up 20.4% — outperforming heating oil (+17%), Brent crude (+16%), and gold (+14%).

One recent tailwind for soybean oil has been reaction to headlines surrounding the U.S.–India trade deal, which includes potential tariff reductions on U.S. soybean oil and other ag products.

The agreement has already triggered political backlash in India, with farmer groups warning that cheaper U.S. imports could pressure domestic crushers and oilmeal producers, even as government officials frame the move as a tool to ease food inflation and diversify supply.

While the potential for increased U.S. soybean oil sales to India remains to be seen, the market has clearly reacted to speculation that tariff reductions could materially improve U.S. export competitiveness.