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Today, it’s the 12 Days of Christmas — HOT TAKE style.

On the first day of Christmas, the market gave to me…

After a year dominated by U.S. threats under Section 301, Chinese shipyards ended 2025 with more market share, not less.

Dry bulk newbuilding dropped to a five-year low, dropping more than 50% year-on-year amid softer freight expectations, long lead times, and ongoing regulatory and fuel uncertainty.

Even so, Chinese yards captured 81% of new bulk carrier orders by capacity in 2025, up 9% from 2024 and largely at the expense of Japanese yards, underscoring China’s continued dominance despite the now-suspended USTR port fees on Chinese-built vessels.

In November, the U.S. and China agreed to a one-year pause on the proposed shipping-related measures, with both sides suspending retaliatory actions amid a broader thaw in trade tensions.

On the second day of Christmas, the market gave to me…

After reaching two-year highs last summer on weather fears and strength in soybean oil, canola has since collapsed 20% as Canada–China trade tensions intensified.

Futures are down 9% since Thanksgiving, closing lower in all but three of the past 20 trading days, hit by a one-two punch of a record Canadian crop and the loss of exports to China, compounded by weak energies and heavy global veg oil markets.

Although none of canola’s policy issues are resolved — price action suggests we might have finally found a bottom.

Twins: canola (yellow) has moved lower in lockstep with soybeans (green) after Jan made its $11.60 mid-November high.

On the third day of Christmas, the market gave to me…

With one week left in the year, soybean oil has done the heavy lifting in 2025, up more than 20% year-to-date, despite being whiplashed by biofuel policy throughout the year.