Spots are filling quickly for 2027 AgVentures. Due to strong demand, we’re offering two opportunities to experience soybean harvest in Brazil and have added a new destination: Argentina.

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November heating oil futures were up nearly 30 cents at the highs Thursday after a tanker was struck north of Qatar, deep inside the Persian Gulf. The market has backed off those highs but is still up roughly 20 cents on the day, with Brent also sharply higher.

At the peak, today’s move ranked among the biggest one-day gains in cents per gallon since 1980. Fourteen of the 20 largest daily gains on record have now happened in 2026.

And it is not just the biggest days. Heating oil moved 20 cents or more in a single session only 28 times in the prior 46 years combined. It has already done it 18 times this year. What used to be an extreme move has become a regular occurence in 2026.

Meanwhile, Washington is trying to bring a little relief at the pump. President Trump signed an order allowing tax-exempt off-road diesel on highways, while several states have taken their own steps to cut fuel costs. Louisiana is allowing farmers and timber harvesters to use dyed diesel on the road, Indiana suspended its gasoline sales tax, and Kentucky cut its gas tax 10 cents.

That helps. It does not fix the supply problem, especially when a 20+ cent move in futures can wipe out most of the 24-cent federal diesel tax break in a single day.

China has 11.1 MMT of U.S. soybeans on the books as of Oct. 1, up from zero a year ago. Total U.S. commitments are 22.8 MMT (837 million bushels), up 10.1 MMT from last year.

That is an increase of 80% year over year and the highest for this point in the marketing year since 2022/23. China is what makes all the difference and then some. Excluding China, the U.S. soybean book is actually smaller than it was a year ago.

The pace is strong too. Current commitments sit right at 50% of USDA’s current 1.685 billion bushel export forecast, compared with a normal seasonal pace closer to 40%. That puts soybeans about 145 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA’s current export number.