The Thursday HOT TAKE

Spots are filling quickly for 2027 AgVentures. Due to strong demand, we’re offering two opportunities to experience soybean harvest in Brazil and have added a new destination: Argentina.

For additional information or to reserve your spot, visit NoBullAg.com/AgVentures or reply to this message.

Up until this point, soybean crushers seemed to have it made.

I mean — record crush margins, record product demand and a record 2026 soybean crop about to come knocking at their door.

What more could you ask for?

And then things changed.

The problem isn't the size of the crop, though. It's getting it delivered.

This year’s harvest started fast. Really fast. A lack of precipitation and abnormally warm weather finished the crop quickly across the Delta and gave southern states a wide open harvest window.

As we talked about in last week's HOT TAKE, the heat and dry weather pushed harvest well ahead of average, sending more beans to the U.S. Gulf than it could handle. September bids collapsed as exporters worked through an armada of barges waiting on an armada of empty vessels to load with beans for China.

A week later, the map looks a little different.

The South remains well ahead of average, but harvest has now slipped behind normal across Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

That changed last week as several inches of rain fell across a wide swath of the Northern Plains, through the western Corn Belt and into the East, bringing harvest progress to a crawl in some of the areas that needed new crop beans most.

The impact is clear.

While harvest in Arkansas advanced another 15%, Iowa managed just 2% and Wisconsin made no progress.

Producers in the South keep on delivering bushels as a large crop and limited space force bushels on the market.

Meanwhile, producers in the northern half of the U.S. don’t have anything to deliver yet.