The Thursday HOT Mess

I enjoyed my mid-week trip to central Michigan, but getting there was another story.

Flight delays, a Detroit reroute, and 160 miles of intermittent whiteout conditions added a few gray hairs and renewed my appreciation for not living in lake-effect snow country.

Speaking of—which one of you does this belong to?

While traversing Michigan's arctic tundra yesterday, I spotted a few fields of unharvested corn.

USDA might want to knock another 80 acres off the 2024 harvested area estimate — prospects aren’t looking great.

We all know this past week has been a winter logistics and operations nightmare across much of the country.

That’s the focus of today’s update — because this pattern repeats itself. A logistical mess throws a wrench into the system, basis and spreads react first, the board follows, and the system eventually corrects — often sharply — in the opposite direction.

Let’s start north of St. Louis with a bird’s-eye view of the confluence of the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers (just below the wing).

Unlike northern stretches of the Mississippi that shut down entirely in winter, the Illinois stays open — barely. Ice forces special barge couplings, creates lock delays, and slows traffic to a crawl.

Notice the single narrow path through the ice heading south off the Illinois. Think of it like an interstate in a snowstorm — one lane, partially cleared.

It technically functions, but it’s inefficient and slow.

Landing in St. Louis yesterday evening, I was on the north end of town.

In the image below, center-left is ADM’s terminal on the Missouri side of the river. Green Plains Madison, IL is visible on the right, along with the Chain of Rocks Canal — aka Lock 27.

Lock 27 is the southernmost lock on the Mississippi River and the single busiest lock in the system by tonnage.

Sitting just downstream of the Mississippi–Illinois and Mississippi–Missouri confluences, it handles everything moving south from both river systems.