The Friday HOT TAKE

This is weird for me.

If you know me at all, you know bullish isn’t exactly in my blood. I mean, look at the name — No Bull.

Part of that is because I have never been afraid to call something exactly as I see it. But part of it is also because, at my core, I am a natural bear.

I blame 15+ years of working directly with farmers. Being perpetually bullish never did anyone any favors. Hope is not a marketing plan, and waiting for the market to give you just a little more has buried plenty of good opportunities over the years.

So perhaps today marks a defining moment in my career.

Either I have this right…

or I am about to put the top in the market.

But recent market action is about more than yield. It is more than war. It is more than the lingering threat of El Niño.

Markets are responding to a host of factors that are beginning to collide at the same time.

The question is whether today’s setback is the end of the move — or whether we are in the early stages of something much larger.

And as uncomfortable as it makes me to type this:

I think it is the latter.

Hold onto your hats, because this move isn’t about one thing.

It is ten things. And together, they add up to something much bigger.

For Pro subscribers, all ten reasons are below in an abbreviated format.

For Pro+ subscribers, early next week we will release a special Insights report digging deeper into key themes, with additional research, data and exclusive charts supporting the case.

And for current free subscribers — love ya, but the buck stops here.