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El Niño and Agriculture
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
NOAA now puts the odds of El Niño developing by mid-summer 2026 at 82%, with a 96% chance it remains in place through winter.
And while it’s too early to confidently call a “Super” El Niño, the risk of a very strong event is on the table — something we’ve only seen a few times in the modern era, including 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO — the El Niño Southern Oscillation — a recurring Pacific weather cycle that shifts rainfall, temperatures, and storm tracks around the globe.
Every 2–7 years, the tropical Pacific swings between warmer waters (El Niño) and cooler waters (La Niña), reshaping global weather patterns in the process.
But El Niño doesn’t hit every crop — or every region — the same way. In some places it brings relief. In others, it brings drought, flooding, or major production risk.
So what does El Niño mean for agriculture in 2026 and beyond?
Let’s break it down commodity by commodity, region by region.
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