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This edition of Insights breaks down the numbers, EPA’s math, why the delayed 50% RIN haircut isn’t as bearish as it looks, Reallocation 101, what to expect going forward — and what it means for feedstock demand in 2026 and beyond.
Includes must-see tables and charts with detailed feedstock use calculations — plus a feedstock story that isn’t getting enough attention.
2026-2027 RVO
Nine Months and 14 Days Later, We Have Set Rule 2
After an initial proposal in June 2025 and a supplemental in September, the EPA finalized the 2026–2027 Renewable Fuel Standard rule on Friday — rolled out alongside a White House event highlighting record volumes and support for U.S. agriculture.
“I’m also announcing a dramatic update to the Renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027... We will now be requiring the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history.
These new standards will generate over $10 billion of rural economic benefit, create an estimated 100,000 new jobs, and massively increase our nation's energy supply.
It’ll come right out of the farms.”
This is a supportive RVO with major implications for soybean oil.
The story is biomass-based diesel — where the bulk of the increase sits — paired with a meaningful SRE reallocation that adds to the D4 obligation, even with the RIN haircut pushed out.
D4 RINs and soybean oil were the winners — something Pro+ subscribers have been expecting for more than two weeks.
The Numbers
A Big, Beautiful RVO
EPA set a high — but expected — bar for biomass-based diesel (D4) at 8.86 billion RINs for 2026 and 8.95 billion RINs for 2027 — the first time in program history EPA expressed the BBD standard in RINs rather than physical gallons.
At 1.64 D4 RIN equivalence, 2026 pencils out to 5.4 billion gallons. For 2027, EPA projects 5.7 billion gallons, reflecting a slightly higher assumed equivalence mix — both in line with what I’ve been laying out for Pro+ subscribers the past few weeks.
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